Where FP&A Really Starts — Short-Term Cash Forecasting
7/30/2025
When people hear FP&A (financial planning and analysis), they often jump to sophisticated dashboards, rolling forecasts, or strategic modeling. But for most growing companies, FP&A doesn’t begin there. It begins with something much simpler—and far more essential: short-term cash forecasting.
In environments where capital is constrained, timing is tight, or decision-making is fast-paced, knowing what your cash looks like over the next 13 weeks is foundational. Until a company has visibility into how cash is moving on a weekly (or even daily) basis, long-range planning is a distraction at best and dangerous at worst.
Why Short-Term Cash Forecasting Comes First
Cash forecasting provides the one thing every CEO and leadership team needs: clarity - clarity about when money is coming in, what obligations are due, and whether you’ll have the flexibility to make payroll, pay vendors, or invest in growth.
A 13-week cash forecast gives companies a real-time understanding of working capital cycles, customer payment behavior, and potential cash gaps before they become crises. More than that, it builds a habit of financial visibility that includes:
1. regularly updating forecasts
2. reconciling actuals to projected cash
3. improving your assumptions over time.
Start Simple, Start in Excel
You don’t need a fancy platform or automation tool to build a short-term forecast. In fact, Excel remains the best place to start. Create a grid that shows weekly columns and rows for major inflows (collections, new sales) and outflows (payroll, rent, vendors, debt service). The goal is not perfect precision—it’s directional accuracy and discipline.
As you build the habit, you’ll start seeing patterns. You’ll learn how timing shifts in receivables or a single large vendor payment can dramatically alter your runway. And you’ll begin proactively planning around those movements.
The Role of the Accounting Team
A successful forecast is not a solo effort. It requires collaboration across departments. Accounting owns the inputs—cash on hand, known obligations, and recent activity. But sales, operations, and leadership all contribute to assumptions around revenue timing and spend. This process helps elevate the accounting function into a more strategic role. It also forces the organization to communicate about money proactively—not just when there's a problem.
From Cash View to Budgeting Platform
Once a business gets comfortable forecasting cash for the next 13 weeks, the next step is layering on a 12-month budget. This budget should align with strategic goals and include seasonality, hiring plans, capital projects, and revenue initiatives. Eventually, that budget becomes a rolling forecast, updated quarterly (and eventually monthly) to keep it relevant, but none of that matters if the company doesn’t know what’s happening in the next 30, 60, or 90 days.
Build the Muscle First
Short-term cash forecasting isn’t glamorous. But it’s where discipline starts. It builds the analytical habits, cross-functional collaboration, and visibility that are the backbone of FP&A. If your company is growing and you want to build real financial intelligence, don’t start with dashboards. Because cash is king, start with cash. Until you understand your cash deeply and frequently, you’re not doing FP&A. You’re just guessing.
Kevin Morelli
Dedicated to empowering scaling businesses with accurate and timely financial insights.
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